The Case for Chad

Sometimes, you have to go out on a limb. So here goes.

Chad Gaudin should be the Yankees' Game 4 starter if they reach the ALCS.

Now, most of you casual Yankee fans are probably thinking two things -- Chad who? and Don't the Yanks have some prodigy, that Joba guy?

Yes, Chad Gaudin is a virtual unknown, even to Yankee fans. And Joba Chamberlain has been the Bombers' ace-in-waiting for the last two years. But if you get past the hype and look at the numbers, everything points to Gaudin.

Coming into 2009, Joba had thrown a total of 128 innings in his major league career. In both 2007 (as a reliever) and 2008 (as a starter), he was subject to the ever-changing Joba Rules, pitch counts and inning limits implemented by Yankee management in an attempt to protect the young righty from overusing his arm and killing his career (think Francisco Liriano).

The strategy appeared to work. Joba got off to a sizzling start this season, sitting at 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA on July 31. At that point, he looked like a bona fide Game 3 starter and was a sure member of the postseason rotation.

Then four things happened in rapid succession: Joba began to struggle, he got injured and missed a start, the Joba Rules came back, and his confidence went completely to hell.

You can draw a straight line from the tendinitis in Joba's right rotator cuff to his dismal run of starts in August and September. Because of the Joba Rules the last two years, Chamberlain wasn't used to a full season's worth of starts, and his throwing shoulder began to break down. The Yankees overreacted, as they have done throughout Joba's career, and put his innings count on lockdown. So every time Joba took the mound, he didn't know when he would be pulled, no matter how well he pitched. It led to a torrent of commentary and hyperbolic rhetoric on the blogosphere, and more importantly, it screwed with the head of a kid who just turned 24 and acts much younger than that on the mound.

The result was a 1-4 record, 7.69 ERA, and exactly one quality start in the final two months of the season. At this point, it's hard to have any faith in Joba, to the point where the Yankees have no choice in selecting their ALDS schedule (because they have the AL's best record, they get to pick). They have to choose the series with an extra day of rest, making a fourth starter unnecessary.

But in the ALCS and World Series, you need a fourth arm for Game 4. Enter Chad Gaudin.

Gaudin was a mideseason pickup from San Diego, where he was 4-10 with a 5.13 ERA. But the journeyman found the American League more to his liking, going 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA in New York. More impressive was his line in outings of three or more innings: 1-0, no more than three runs allowed in any start. Even more impressive was his performance on Sept. 22 against the Los Angeles Angels, the Yanks' longtime playoff nemesis and possible ALCS opponent.

Bottom line: The Yankees don't need a great performance from their Game 4 starter. If they get 4-5 good innings, they can turn the ball over to long man extraordinaire Alfredo Aceves, who is lights-out at getting a couple of scoreless innings. At that point, you're into the meat of the Yankee bullpen, and I figure Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera can take it from there.

If the question is who can give the Bombers a great start, I say go with Joba. But if the Yankees want the best chance for a good start and the lowest risk for a pitching implosion, they've got to go with Gaudin.