Sunday, November 1, 2009

Game 4 Analysis: Anatomy of a two-out rally

How to turn a two-out, none-on, no-momentum ninth-inning situation into three runs, a 7-4 victory and a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series:

1. Shake off the bad juju: The Yankees were either ahead or tied the entire game and held a tenuous 4-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning. Joe Girardi summoned Joba Chamberlain from the bullpen, and the mercurial righty got the dangerous Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez easily. With two out and none on, Joba got ahead of weak-hitting third baseman Pedro Feliz, 1-2, and was a pitch away from handing a lead to Mariano Rivera.

Then he got cute. Instead of blowing Feliz away with a high fastball, Joba threw consecutive breaking balls out of the zone, forcing him to go with a fastball in the strike zone on 3-2. Feliz was waiting for it and ripped a home run to left, tying the game at 4 and putting the pressure squarely on the Yanks.

But even though Hideki Matsui and Derek Jeter started off the ninth with outs, the Yanks never appeared nervous or down. They kept the attitude that got them a league-best 103 wins in the regular season and playoff victories over the Twins and Angels: We're the best team in baseball, and we play all 27 outs.

2. Fight off your opponent's best shots and get something started: Matsui and Jeter were sent back to the dugout by Phillies' closer Brad Lidge, who blew two save opportunities against the Yankees in two days back in May. This time, Lidge was trying to keep the game tied and give Philly a chance to win it in the bottom of the ninth, when they would have the top of the their order against the aggressively mediocre Phil Coke.

With two out and none on, Lidge faced Johnny Damon, who quickly fell behind 1-2. The Phillies were one strike away from a chance for a come-from-behind win that would even the series -- and with ace Cliff Lee going in Game 5, give the Phils a decided advantage. Only Damon wouldn't back down. He fouled off a pitch, took two balls, and spoiled two 3-2 pitches to keep the at-bat alive. Lidge tried an outside fastball, and Damon took it to left field for a single.

3. Make a smart, heads-up play: Damon wasted no time making an impact on the bases, breaking for second on Lidge's first pitch to Mark Teixeira. The Yankee left fielder made it with time to spare, sliding in as the throw from Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz bounced in front of second.

FREEZE THIS MOMENT

(OK, so you're Johnny Damon. You slide into second, pick up your head and look around. Feliz is three feet away from you catching Ruiz's one-hop throw. And why is Feliz, a third baseman, catching the ball? Because the Phillies have the shift on for Teixeira, which means the shortstop and second baseman are both playing between first and second and the third baseman covers second on stolen base attempts. And what does that mean? There's no one between you and third base.

So what you do? You make a break for it.)

Damon took off, avoiding a desperate tag attempt by a stunned Ruiz and chugging into third as the Philadelphia crowd watched in horror. In theory, Lidge should have covered third base with the shift on, but the situation is so rare that you can't really blame him.

The move put Damon on third instead of second and had one very specific, very critical effect on the game. Basically, Lidge is a two-pitch closer. He has a mid-90s fastball and a sharp slider that breaks down, a pitch that baffles hitters but often ends up in the dirt. With a runner on third, any breaking ball in the dirt could lead to a wild pitch that scores Damon and ties the game.

So once Damon made his mad dash to third, the hard slider -- Lidge's best pitch -- was effectively removed from his arsenal. In other words, a pitcher with a history of blown saves was reduced to a one-pitch fastball machine. Two pitches later, Lidge plunked Teixeira in the elbow with a fastball, putting runners on the corner for Alex Rodriguez.

Oh, and A-Rod's been deadly on fastballs all postseason. And he hit a game-tying home run back off Lidge back in May -- on a fastball. Think Damon's dash was kind of important?

4. Get the big hit: A-Rod took the first fastball from Lidge for a strike. But with Lidge reduced to fastball after fastball, the 0-1 count was irrelevant -- A-Rod knew the next pitch was going to be another inside fastball. The Yankee slugger smashed it into the left field corner for a double, plating Damon and giving the Yanks a 5-4 lead.

It was only A-Rod's second hit in 14 World Series at-bats. But each one -- a two-run homer in Game 3 and the double off Lidge -- was huge.

5. Go for the jugular: The Yankees were back in front, but a 5-4 lead isn't exactly safe, even with Rivera coming in for the save. With Teixeira on third and A-Rod on second, Jorge Posada had a chance to give the Yanks some breathing room. Like Damon, Posada fell behind in the count, fouling off the first two pitches and facing an 0-2 hole. Like Damon, he battled back, taking two balls and taxing Lidge's patience. And like Damon, he lined a single to left center, scoring both runners. Posada was tagged out trying to advance to second, but the damage was already done, and Rivera walked to the mound with a 7-4 lead.


That's how it's done. We'll see if Lee and his electric stuff can get the Phillies over such a gut-wrenching loss. Otherwise, the Yankees may reverse Jimmy Rollins' pre-Series prediction and take it home in five.

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