Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Breaking down the Granderson trade

World Series champions often rest on their laurels, content with the roster that was good enough to win it all (1997 Florida Marlins excepted). But the 2009 Yankees have wasted little time tweaking their roster. On Tuesday, they jumped in with both feet, picking up Tigers' center fielder Curtis Granderson and dumping pitchers Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke as part of a three-team trade.

A big deal -- literally and figuratively. Let's break it down.

--Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson: That description isn't quite accurate -- the Yanks sent Coke to the Tigers and Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks in return for Detroit sending their All-Star outfielder to the Bronx.

On the surface, this looks like a great deal. Kennedy had long since become the black sheep of the Joba-Hughes-Kennedy young hurler triumvirate, winning only one game in 12 career starts while battling injuries. Coke's fate was sealed when Damaso Marte was lights-out in the postseason, supplanting Coke as the southpaw specialist on a ballclub that traditionally relies on one lefty -- and one lefty only -- in relief. And adding Granderson allows the Yankees to safely say good-bye to Johnny Damon, whose contract demands (three years minimum and no pay cut for a 36-year-old outfielder) are beyond unrealistic.

It looks like a good deal. But let's look more closely at Mr. Granderson.

Granderson burst onto the scene in 2006 as the dangerous leadoff hitter on a Tigers' team that reached the World Series. He followed that up with a 2007 season that must resonate with all the old school statisticians: .302 average, 185 hits, 122 runs, 38 doubles, 23 triples, 23 home runs and 74 RBIs. A Ricky Henderson-type year for a leadoff hitter -- if you ignore the paltry .361 on-base percentage and 141 strikeouts.

The Yankees better hope they get Granderson 1.0, because the center fielder's numbers have plummeted each of the last two seasons. If you look only at last year -- a pretty good barometer for evaluating a player you want to start for your team -- Granderson is a bottom-of-the-road player (pun intended). He hit .249, managed only 20 stolen bases and struck out 141 times -- again. That's about one strikeout for every 1.7 times he reached base.

Which leads me to ask: What exactly is GM Brian Cashman's endgame here? Does Granderson take the place of Melky Cabrera, who had superior numbers across the board last year and seems to be on the way up? Does he slide over to left to replace Damon, and if so, is a Granderson-Cabrera-Nick Swisher outfield actually going to start Opening Day 2010? Will Granderson move to leadoff and bump Derek Jeter back to the No. 2 spot despite Jeter's massive statistical improvement in 2009 after he returned to leading off? If not, will he become the Bombers' second No. 9 hitter (because Melky is clearly a bottom-of-the-lineup guy)?

And the big one: With all our resources, this is the marquee outfielder we get for left field?

I don't like the move. I think it creates a conundrum in the batting order, where manager Joe Girardi will have to choose between moving Jeter away from his natural leadoff spot or batting Granderson/Robinson Cano second in the order (and neither of those guys get on base enough to be good table-setters for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez). I think the real Curtis Granderson is the one from 2009, not 2007 -- the guy that ESPN.com's Jayson Stark introduces as "a man with a plummeting OPS and funky numbers against that sneaky portion of the population that insists on throwing a baseball left-handed." And I think that unless C-Grand (no? I like it) can take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium like Damon has, this deal will end up being a negative for the Yankees.

Thoughts?

2 Comments:

At December 9, 2009 at 7:03 PM , Blogger CitizenX said...

So! I have thoughts. I have manies of thoughts.

The most important thing is that Granderson is cheaply under team control for 4 more years. All they gave up was Ian Kennedy, who didn't seem like he would ever crack the rotation, and Austin Jackson, who might one day be Granderson with less power.

"if you ignore the paltry .361 on-base percentage and 141 strikeouts"

Strikeouts matter very little. .361 isn't paltry at all, especially for a premium defensive position. When you consider that he wouldn't have to lead off, that's more than adequate.

"If you look only at last year -- a pretty good barometer for evaluating a player you want to start for your team -- "

This is not at all a good barometer. Every projection system uses 3 year data, weighted roughly 5/4/3.

"He hit .249, managed only 20 stolen bases and struck out 141 times -- again."

Batting average is a terrible. Strikeouts are terrible. He had a rough season, sure, but he got unlucky on balls on play. All of his skill stats were around his career norms. Kind of like Nick Swisher, who also batted south of .250, and the Yankees bought low on.

"Does Granderson take the place of Melky Cabrera, who had superior numbers across the board last year and seems to be on the way up?"

Curtis Granderson, 2009 only. His worst year:

.249/30/71 .327/.453/.340 (OBP, SLG, wOBA) UZR Defensive rating of 1.6

Melky Cabrera

.274/13/68 .336/.416/.331. UZR Defensive rating of -2.5.

Granderson, in a fluky down year, was still better than Melky in essentially his best year. That's not even counting baserunning. Brett Gardner is also better than Melky. There's no way Cabrera should start, period.


Curtis Granderson had a fluky good 2007 and a fluky bad 2009. If you regress his stats to a reasonable mean, he's easily worth it. And much, much better than Melky.

Much better.

Mostly because Melky isn't that good.

And Curtis Granderson is.

 
At December 9, 2009 at 7:10 PM , Blogger CitizenX said...

BTW, here's the lineup I think they SHOULD use. There is 0.001 percent chance they use this lineup. This is assuming that Damon stays and Matsui leaves.

1.Jeter
2.A-Rod
3.Teixiera
4.Posada
5.Cano
6.Swisher
7.Granderson
8.Damon
9.Gardner

 

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