Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Yankees-Twins ALDS Preview

In the not quite immortal words of Bill Simmons, "Let's break this baby down, Dr. Jack style."

CATCHER: Jorge Posada is one of the best catchers in the league, and he's been a constant presence behind the plate for the Yankees since Joe Girardi played for the team. All the Twins' catcher has done -- that Joe Mauer guy -- is hit .365 to become the first catcher in baseball history to win three batting titles, smack 28 home runs and lead the AL in slugging and on-base percentage, and make himself a virtual shoo-in for the AL MVP. Edge: Twins

FIRST BASEMAN: One of the Yanks' troika of big acquisitions in the offseason, Mark Teixeira has been just as good in pinstripes as he was for the Rangers, Braves, and Angels. Teix-Mex tied for the AL lead in home runs (39) and was alone at the top in RBIs (122). The switch-hitting slugger got better after the All-Star Break, hitting .313 in the second half and .343 in September. To top it off, he was .483 against the Twins this season with four homers, 11 RBIs and an unconscious 1.497 OPS. As much power as Michael Cuddyer has shown in the second half of the season, he can't match Teix. Edge: Yankees

SECOND BASE: Robinson Cano hit .336 after the All-Star Break, best of any Yankee, and his rocket arm gives him more range up the middle than any second baseman in the game. The only knock on Cano is his lackadaisical manner on the field. Many would like him to show a little tenacity and a little hustle, qualities the talent-strapped Nick Punto has is spades. The purists may like Punto more, but the purists aren't on the field. Edge: Yankees

SHORTSTOP: Derek Jeter -- the captain, Mr. November, et al -- against the good-field, little-hit Orlando Cabrera? Cabrera could have hit four go-ahead home runs in Tuesday's one-game playoff and this category still wouldn't be close. Edge: Yankees

THIRD BASE: OK, OK, you get it. The Yankees have the best infield in baseball, if not the best ever. So I'll keep it short Alex Rodgriguez over Matt Tolbert in a first-round KO. Edge: Yankees

LEFT FIELD: Both Johnny Damon and the Twins' Delmon Young have put up solid numbers this season, though Damon's increasingly limited range in the field makes him a major defensive liability. That said, you gotta like the veteran Yankee's playoff track record. Young's inability to draw walks -- just 12 free passes all year -- makes the difference here. Edge: Yankees

CENTER FIELD: Denard Span has been one of the more pleasant surprises for Minnesota this season. Posting 180 hits and 97 runs and batting .311 in your first full major league season will earn you those accolades. Melky Cabrera's been a pleasant surprise in his own right for the Bombers, but he doesn't have the numbers to match Span. Edge: Twins

RIGHT FIELD: A little explanation here. Because of the season-ending injury to elite first baseman and 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau, Cuddyer has spent most of the past month playing first base. That means DH-type Jason Kubel has been holding things down in right field. Whether he plays the field or not, Kubel has been dominant at the plate, sliding nicely into the cleanup spot vacated by Morneau and hitting for both power and average. His solo shot in the sixth inning of Tuesday's one-game playoff got the Twins off the mat and started their first rally. Nick Swisher gets on base more than Kubel, but he doesn't produce nearly as many runs. Edge: Twins

DESIGNATED HITTER: The ageless wonder, Hideki Matsui, had a resurgence at the end of the year, hitting .325 in September and eclipsing 20 home runs for the fourth time in six seasons (the other two were cut short by injury). Matsui is one of those players who mechanics never change, no matter what the situation. That can be a nightmare in certain situations, but it makes for some clutch hitting. Compare that with Jose Morales, who started at DH for the Twins in the one-game playoff. Morales has a total of 55 major league games under his belt and was only called up from Triple A for good on August 28. Edge: Yankees

STARTING PITCHING: The Yankees have the $275 million combo of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to go with arguably the best postseason starting pitcher of the last 40 years in Andy Pettitte. They also get to start their ace, Sabathia, in Game 1 and proceed in order. Not only do the Twins have exactly zero proven big-time pitchers, they used their best pitcher in yesterday's playoff, Scott Baker. That means he can only start one game in the series, and it probably won't be until Game 4. So the Twins' Game 1 starter will be rookie Brian Duensing, who pitched out of the bullpen until September. Batters hit .290 against Game 2 starter Nick Blackburn, who posted identical 11-11 records in his two big league seasons. In Game 3 , it'll be none other than former Yankee nightmare Carl Pavano -- and by nightmare, I mean nightmare for the team he plays for. Think the Bombers are excited to feast on two unproven starters and a mediocre veteran? Me too. Edge: Yankees

RELIEF PITCHING: The Yankees have a flamethrower in Phil Hughes, a proven lights-out setup guy in Joba Chamberlain, and the best closer of all time in Mariano Rivera. The Twins' have an elite closer of their own in Joe Nathan, but their setup guys just don't rival Hughes and Joba. Plus, the Twins used six relief pitches to get through six innings on Tuesday. They're basically spent for Game 1. Edge: Yankees

MANAGER: Ron Gardenhire was brilliant in getting his Twins to ride the momentum down the stretch to a 17-4 finish and a miracle division title. But his playoff record is 6-15, and the Twins have lost their last three ALDS appearances. Joe Girardi is an unknown commodity in the postseason, though he has looked like King Midas in 2009. Edge: Even

INTANGIBLES: The Yankees won all seven games from the wins this year. They've beaten the Twins in their two ALDS matchups, four games in both 2003 and 2004. And they've had more than 20 hours to prepare for the all-important Game 1. Edge: Yankees

BOTTOM LINE: A couple thousand words later, I'm going to keep this brief. The ALDS is always a crapshoot. The best teams often lose, and teams with 87 wins (2009 Twins) can win the World Series (2000 Yankees). But all we prognosticators can do is judge the teams on paper. And on paper, there's no question the Yankees are better.

PREDICTION: Yankees in 4

1 Comments:

At October 7, 2009 at 2:50 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

I was with you until you described Delmon Young as "solid." Delmon Young as been absolutely terrible; One of the very worst regulars in the American League.

But yeah, the Yankees SHOULD win. Especially considering the Twins used their best starter and 7 (!) relief pitchers yesterday.

 

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