Jets-Colts Preview: Party Like It's 1969

The Jets are going to win this game. I guarantee it.

(Or has someone already said that?)

All Namath-ing aside, Gang Green is going to upset the Colts, shock the football world, and advance to its first Super Bowl since that fateful January day in Miami 41 years ago.

I know the Colts are eight-point favorites. I know Peyton Manning's squad hasn't lost a game all season when the starters played all four quarters. I know Indy was leading the Jets, 15-10, in their Week 16 matchup before Manning and other key players were pulled.

I know all those things. In response, I offer 10 reasons why the Jets are going to win.

1. Shonn Greene is the new Ahmad Bradshaw: As in a third-string running back who got playing time because of injuries to people in front of him and blew people away. Bradshaw did it with speed for the 2007 Giants, while Greene is more patient and powerful (check out his bulldozing of San Diego safety Eric Weddle). But both went from afterthought to key contributor in a manner of weeks.

In reality, though, there is no parallel to Greene's story. Two years ago, Greene was working as a truck driver and attending community college while he got his grades up. Now he's become the first Jet to rush for 100 yards in consecutive playoff games since Freeman McNeil in 1982. And in an overlooked stat from last week, the Colts did not actually shut down Ravens' back Ray Rice. He average 5.0 yards a carry but rushed only 13 times because Baltimore had to play catch-up the entire game. With a similar body type and running style, Greene should be to wear down the Indy defense.

CAVEAT ALERT: IF THOMAS JONES GETS MORE THAN 25 PERCENT OF THE CARRIES, DISREGARD THIS POINT. IN FACT, DISREGARD THE ENTIRE POST.

2. The Jets will hit Peyton Manning. Hard. Rex Ryan's blitz-happy strategy may not pay immediate dividends against Manning, who's a master at stepping up in the pocket and making quick decisions. But even if he gets the ball off, he's going to absorb some punishing hits early on. And if he gets crunched a few times by the likes of David Harris and Mike Devito (what a great name for a Jet), Manning might just flinch the next time he sees Gang Green coming at him.

3. The Colts will have zero running game: Indianapolis was dead last in the NFL in running (80.9 yards a game). The Jets were eighth in the league in run defense (98.6 yards allowed a game). 'Nuff said.

4. Indy's short passing game will work, but it will also keep the pace slow: Manning skewered the Jets with this strategy in Week 16, dinking and dunking his way down the field behind dump-offs to running back Joseph Addai and quick passes to tight end Dallas Clark. And yet Indy's first team had only one touchdown drive in 2 1/2 quarters -- three of their dink-dunk possessions led only to field goals. Translation: Down in the red zone, the short pass doesn't work nearly as well. You have to be able to run the ball (see point 3).

5. The Jets O-Line will gradually wear down the Colts' front seven: The only center in the league with the chops to match Indy veteran Jeff Saturday is Gang Green's Nick Mangold, a long-haired maniac who brutalizes the middle of opposing lines. On the deciding fourth-and-one in last week's victory, the Jets ran right behind Mangold, who pushed the line back two yards by himself.

The Jets also have Pro Bowler Alan Faneca and mountainous tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. There's a reason Gang Green had the best running attack in the NFL, averaging more than 173 yards per game on the ground. It'll be on display in the second half today, when the Colt defenders have their hands on their hips between plays, sucking wind.

6. Mark Sanchez will have a big, mistake-free game: By far the biggest 'if' surrounding a potential Jets' victory. Because if Sanchez plays a mistake-free game, stays with the short passes and avoids taking chances down the field, the Jets will lose. Period.

The game Sanchez played against the Chargers will not be enough. Gang Green needs him to replicate this stat line from two weeks ago. If the O-Line can keep standout defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis out of the backfield, Sanchez has a chance to have that game. Have faith, I say.

7. Reggie Wayne will be a nonfactor, thanks to Darrelle Revis. By now, every fan knows Revis for his consistent, week-to-week ability to shut down the best receivers in the game. Revis is so good that he actually turns the other team's best wideout into a positive for the Jets, recording an INT in each playoff game and smothering Chad "Johnson" and Vincent Jackson.

Wayne is one of the best receivers of the last 10 years, and he and Manning have formed one of the more prolific hookups in NFL history. But he will get nothing against the NFL's best defensive player.

8. In a close game, I'll take Jay Feely: The Jets have benefited from multiple missed field goals in each of their playoff wins. Meanwhile, Feely has gone 2-2 (including a huge 46-yarder against San Diego), made two more kicks that were negated by penalties, and shone as a emergency punter in the win over Cincinnati. I covered Feely when I was working for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and he was with the Dolphins, and he's a class act, as professional an athlete as I've ever met. He's also a bulldog who routinely makes tackles on kick coverage and fires himself up for pressure kicks. I'll take Feely over anybody left in the playoffs, including Colts' veteran Matt Stover.

9. The Jets' game plan will give them a chance: Ryan's defense-first game plan is simple: Play conservative, don't make mistakes, control the field position, rely on your defense, and keep the game close going into the fourth quarter. It worked to perfection against San Diego, and it even worked in Week 16, when the Jets kept it close until the Colts benched their starters. Put it this way: If the Colts are up 13-7 going into the fourth quarter, the Jets will definitely take it.

10. Karma, baby: The Jets only reached the playoffs because the Colts decided to screw a chance at 19-0 and pulled their top players early. The Bengals basically did the same thing (lack of effort v actually pulling the players) and the Jets have already come back to haunt them. Throw in the residual karma from Super Bowl III, and you have a tidal wave of good juju on the Jets' side.

Earlier this week, my friend showed me a picture he had taken at a Jets game. It was a shot of the field and the backs of two fans. One was wearing a Namath jersey, one a Sanchez jersey. After today, that image will be even more enduring.

THE PICK: Jets 17, Colts 16

Karma and the Jets

As sports fans go, I am fairly pragmatic. I focus on numbers and trends and tend to ignore that nebulous factor beloved by so many fans: karma. I believe the Red Sox came back against the Yankees in the ALCS-That-Must-Not-Be-Named because they had better pitching and more hits in the clutch, not because the ghost of Babe Ruth finally decided to give Boston a break. Karma is how fans explain what they can't understand, and that almost always comes from a lack of sports knowledge.

But there's something about this Jets team.

I mean, how can you explain Gang Green's last four games? Playoff-clinching wins against the Colts (14-0) and Bengals (10-5) because both teams decided not to play at their best (Indianapolis pulled their starters, while Cincinnati obviously had no interest in winning the Week 17 game). Frigid conditions in Cincinnati for the wild-card game, which massively favored teams that run the ball and play defense. Shonn Greene, who two years ago was a truck driver in Iowa, rushing for back-to-back 100-yard games in the playoffs and turning into the second coming of Freeman McNeil overnight. Mark Sanchez going from a wheel-coming-off-the-wagon rookie QB to the 2009 version of Ben Roethlisberger. A pair of kickers (Cincinnati Shayne Graham and San Diego's Nate Kaeding) who combined to miss four field goals from inside 40 yards, including a crucial late-game miss in the exact same situation (down 10, less than five minutes left, chip shot FG that would've made it a one-score game). San Diego repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties, including four personal foul penalties. Two Darrelle Revis interceptions in the playoffs that were game-changing, highlight-reel plays.

OK, so the last one was less karma, more Revis being the best defensive player in the league (with the potential to become the most dominating shutdown cornerback since early-90s Deion Sanders). But the Jets have had an astonishing number of chips fall their way. And now, they are the overwhelming underdog of the NFL's final four. How big is the disparity between Gang Green and the Colts, Saints, and Vikings? These are the records of each team after Week 11.

Colts (10-0)
Saints (10-0)
Vikings (9-1)
Jets (4-6)

Enough said.

At this point, though, the records don't matter. Fresh off their remarkable 17-14 upset of the Chargers, the Jets are one win away from their first Super Bowl since Joe Namath's guarantee and the most shocking upset in NFL history, a 16-7 win over the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

The Colts, now in Indianapolis, await the Jets on Sunday. Though Rex Ryan's squad beat Indy 29-15 in Week 16, a Jets win would nonetheless be an upset to rival that epic Super Bowl matchup 41 years ago.

But that's for later this week. Right now, let's break down the biggest Jets win in 11 years.

KEY STAT: The Jets outrushed the Chargers 169-61, shutting down LaDanian Tomlinson while unleashing their new two-headed monster on the San Diego defense. Though starter Thomas Jones was ineffective, Greene ate up yards and clock in the second half, including a monster 53-yard touchdown that turned out to be the winning score. On the play, Greene made in into the secondary untouched, bulldozed over safety Eric Weddle and headed for the end zone. Now that's power running.

(Honorable mention: Kaeding's three missed field goals. When the final score is 17-14 and you miss two chippies from inside 40 yards, you're probably starting next season in a different uniform.)

KEY STAT NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT: The Jets won the time of possession battle, 31:31 to 28:29. On the surface, the difference looks fairly pedestrian. Look closer, and you find the Chargers controlled the ball for 11:35 in the first quarter alone (yes, I'm using italics a lot. This is some shocking stuff here). So from the second quarter on, the TOP battle looks like this: Jets 28:06, Chargers 16:54. The Jets rediscoverd Greene in the second quarter and picked up all 14 of their first downs in the final three periods. It's no surprise that by the fourth quarter, the San Diego defense was physically spent and primed for a major letdown. Enter Greene's touchdown run.

ANATOMY OF AN INTERCEPTION: Revis made not one, but two heads-up plays on his third quarter pick of Philip Rivers. Chargers' receiver Vincent Jackson appeared to have position on a jump ball thrown by Rivers on third-and-8 at the New York 36. But as Jackson grabbed the ball, Revis pulled down on his right shoulder, jarring the pigskin of his hands.

Both players fell to the ground as the ball bounced off Jackson's heel. As he rolled onto his back, Revis saw the ball falling to the ground next to him, realized what was going on, and pulled it in with his right hand as he lay on the ground. The above sentence took place in about 1.5 seconds. Revis displayed the presence of mind of a veteran corner and had the physical skills to haul in the interception while lying flat on his back. To top it off, he got up and ran for six yards before getting tackled.

If Revis isn't guarding Jackson, he makes the catch and it's a first down for San Diego inside the 20. Instead, Revis got the INT and the Jets got the ball -- and the momentum -- back. Someone please explain to me how Charles Woodson beat out Revis for Defensive Player of the Year.

UNSUNG GAME-SAVING PLAY: Even people who saw it may not realize how difficult Kerry Rhodes' recovery of the Chargers' onside kick was. Though he had a horrible game, Kaeding booted a perfect onside kick, and three Chargers jumped for the ball as Rhodes got his hands on it. But the much-maligned Jets' safety couldn't control the kick and fell to the side as the ball bounced off his hands. Even though he was completely up in the air, Rhodes stayed with the football, gathering it in as he came crashing down. Lynn Swann could hardly have done it better.

RANDOM HISTORICAL STAT PROVIDED BY MY MOM: The only time the Jets won the Super Bowl, a New York team also won the World Series (the 1969 Amazin' Mets). And as we all know, the World Series trophy currently resides in the Bronx.

OVER-THE-TOP STATEMENT ALERT: If Greene doesn't get at least 80 percent of the carries against the Colts, I'm poking a hole in Rex Ryan.

THE REX RYAN MEMORIAL 'GUT-CHECK' PLAY: A minute left in the game. Jets up three with the ball at the Chargers' 29. Fourth and one. First down wins the game. Punt pins San Diego deep with no timeouts.

Did the Jets go for it? Of course they did. Greene got behind Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and fullback Tony Richardson and dove through the line for two yards. Game over.

BEST POSTGAME DRUNKEN CELEBRATORY LINE: (From a guy at the New York sports bar in D.C. where I watched the game) "You think the Colts are scared? YOU THINK THE COLTS ARE SCARED?!?!?!"

Um, probably not. But they've probably learned a lesson from Gang Green's magical month: Overlook the Jets at your peril.