Link'd Up: The Latest Coup for the Jets

In the world of major Jets' free agent acquisitions, Santonio Holmes is so yesterday.

The latest addition to Gang Green is active sack leader Jason Taylor, the veteran defensive end who has spent all but one of his 13 NFL season on the Miami Dolphins, arguably the Jets' biggest rival. The Jets have reportedly signed Taylor to a two-year deal, with $1.75 million guaranteed for 2010 and a number of performance-based incentives.

Taylor had seven sacks last season for the Dolphins and is 11th all-time in sacks with 127.5 (for you Giants fans out there, that's five sacks fewer than Lawrence Taylor and 14 fewer than Michael Strahan). During his time with Miami, Taylor clashed with the Jets many times and famously said: "Some Jets fans take the 'cl' out of class." But the veteran lineman is nearing the end of his career and clearly has Ray Bourque Syndrome--namely, the desire to win a championship, whatever it takes.

Taylor should thrive in Rex Ryan's attacking 3-4 defense, even if his primary task is to command two blockers and free up blitzers. His subtraction from Miami's defense--he has 16.5 career sacks against the Jets--is an added bonus. And he'll bring veteran leadership to a team filled with young players at the skill positions (and one added head case in Holmes).

Another week, another free agent coup for the Jets. AFC East favorites? Maybe.

Rivera 1, Joe West 0

Baseball is a languorous sport. There is no game clock, no best 3-of-5 sets or 18th hole--you play until one team wins. That leads to long games, especially in the era of four-minute commercial breaks and batters stepping out between most pitches.

That fact has apparently been lost on veteran umpire Joe West, who ripped the Yankees and Red Sox after they averaged a length of 3:39 per game in their three-game set this week. "It's embarrassing and pathetic," West told the Bergen County Record. "They take too long to play."

I could respond that the opening night game (clocked in at 3:46) included stoppages for "God Bless America" and "Sweet Caroline," that all three games were tied in the seventh or later, leading to more pitching changes and deliberate play, and that New York-Boston games are always long. But why respond myself when Mariano Rivera has already said it all?

A man of few words and fewer put-downs, Rivera angrily fired back at West, telling the New York Post the teams "don't want to play four-hour games, but that's what it takes." Turning to West's comments, Rivera was incredulous--and pissed.

It's incredible. If he has places to go, let him do something else. What does he want us to do, swing at balls?

Not only is Rivera as sharp with the tongue as he is with the cutter, he's absolutely right. Both teams played completely within the rules. Against good pitchers (which both teams have in spades) batters are going to step out regularly in an attempt to disrupt their timing. That's perfectly legal, AND it works.

If West really has a gripe with the length of games, he should appeal to Major League Baseball to change the rules (for example, give hurlers a max of 15 seconds between pitches and limit batters to one step-out per at bat). Whining to the press and calling two of the most professional teams in baseball "pathetic" doesn't change anything, Joe. The only pathetic figure here is you.

2010 Yankees Season Preview: The Road to 28

It's a beautiful spring day in New York. Perfectly sunny, temperatures pushing 70 degrees. The kind of day that gets you outside, rejuvenates you, and gets you excited for spring/summer in all their glory.

Translation: IT'S BASEBALL SEASON

Welcome to the 2010 MLB season, where rising young hurlers abound and the National League has slightly more overall talent than the International League (that's Triple A, folks). Oh, and the Yankees are the defending champs.

The Bombers' 27th world championship led to a unique offseason for the Steinbrenners and Brian Cashman. After the disaster that was 2008 (for those of you who blocked it out, the Yanks missed the playoffs), Cashman added C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira--you know, two transcendent players and a solid No. 2 starter. As offseasons go, it was pretty huge.

Fast-forward to last winter. Cashman was in a very different position this time around--the Yanks had just hoisted Title No. 27 and entered the offseason with only a few holes (left/center field, No. 4/5 starters, big bat off the bench). And the Yankees had already pledged to lower their payroll. (Which is like saying the UConn women decided to win by only 30 points a game. But still.)

With that in mind, I'd argue Cashman had more of a coup this offseason than last. Anyone can hook marquee free agents if they're able to spend 10-20 percent more than every other team in baseball. It takes real ingenuity to cut spending AND get the glue guys you need to limit your weaknesses.

So in the 2010 Yankees, we have a team that's 90 percent similar to last year's champs. What's interesting is the many nuances of that other 10 percent. This is a preview replete with parenthetical looks at what I'll call "Tweaks," the subtle changes to the mostly finished product that make the Bombers the odds-on favorite to repeat as World Series champions.

Let's break it down.

CATCHER: In one of my latest spirited baseball conversations with my father, I casually mentioned my thoughts on the career hitting arcs of above average catchers. My theory was that even the best offensive backstoppers have 10, maybe 12 stellar hitting years in them. After that, the long-term grind of getting behind the plate 150+ times a year takes its toll on knees/backs/shoulders, combining with the inevitable march of time to wreck catchers' offensive production.

That sounds good on paper. But is it really true? Here's a (very) small dose of sabermetrics to analyze the "best hitting catchers" of the last 40 years. The stat: OPS (on-base percentage + slugging). My stat: ACAOPS (above career average OPS, or more simply, a year in which the player's OPS was higher than his career OPS).

JOHNNY BENCH
Consecutive years with ACAOPS: 11 (age 21-31, excluding the 1973 and 1976 seasons)
Years of ACAOPS after that stretch: 0

MIKE PIAZZA
Consecutive years with ACAOPS: 9 (age 24-32)
Years of ACAOPS after that stretch: 0

IVAN RODRIGUEZ
Consecutive years with ACAOPS: 11 (age 22-32, excluding the 1995 season)
Years of ACAOPS after that stretch: 0

So arguably the three best hitting catchers since Yogi Berra hung up his spikes had long stretches of consistent offensive efficiency, then fell off in their early 30s and never came back.

Why the extended parenthesis? Jorge Posada will turn 39 in August. And though his OPS last season was above his career average, it was also down almost 100 points from his recent high in 2007.

I see Posada starting off solid but struggling as the year goes on, losing points off his batting average and slowly sliding down the lineup. Expect 40-50 games of Francisco Cervelli behind the plate, especially in night/day situations and long road trips. Posada's been an integral part of the team since the '98 season, but this year is his swan song. Can he be a solid No. 6 hitter and deliver his share of big hits? We'll see.

FIRST BASE: You thoughts Teixeira was good last year? Wait 'till you see what he can do when he doesn't hit .191 in his first 32 games. Teix-Mex's season statistics were so good last year that people forgot he was a millstone in the No. 3 spot for a month and a half. Considering his subsequent offensive tear, I chalk it up to his transition to life as a New York sports star.

This year, he's already been an All-Star, an MVP candidate, and a World Series champion in New York. If he starts strong, he's got "monster year" written all over him.

SECOND BASE: Ah, Robbie. Robbie, Robbie Robbie.

Is there a more frustrating Yankee than Robinson Cano? This is a guy who hit .342 in his second full season, had career-best power numbers last year and is by far the most athletically gifted second baseman in baseball.

(Sorry, Chase Utley. You're better than Cano, but his raw athleticism runs circles around yours.)

Then again, that's exactly the point. Cano has the natural gifts Utley and Dustin Pedroia don't, but they're both better players than he is. Why? Because, quite simply, Cano is lazy. He makes backhanded plays looks effortless but misses many grounders a year because he didn't go all out for the ball. He can hit with extra-base power to all fields, but smart pitchers can get him out without putting a pitch in the strike zone. And in my eyes, he hasn't made a real effort to change these glaring holes in his game in the offseason.

Cano could be the best No. 5 hitter in baseball and reel off an MVP-caliber season. Or he could have another year with a 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and give Joe Girardi a lot more gray hairs. Of all the returning offensive starters, Cano is the biggest enigma.

SHORTSTOP: Let's assume Derek Jeter isn't adversely affected by married life. That the secret to his success isn't the ability to hook up with the world's hottest women without committing adultery.

(Insert Tiger Woods joke here. I'll wait.

...

And moving on.)

Even if Jeter's personal life doesn't affect him at all, he's not going to duplicate his insane 2009 season. A .406 OBP, 212 hits and 30 stolen bases at the age of 35? He may be a future first ballot Hall of Famer, but he's not putting those numbers up again.

That said, Jeter will still be incredibly well-protected in the lineup (more on that in a minute). And even an off year for the superstar puts his average around .300 with 175+ hits and 100+ runs. Jeter will come back to earth a little this season, but not enough to set the offense back at all. And come October, there's no one in the game I'd rather have leading off. Not even Ichiro.

THIRD BASE: If this were 2008, I would be very worried about Alex Rodriguez. He's spent much of the offseason fending off his latest PED-related issue: his relationship with Dr. Anthony Galea, who is under investigation in Canada for his use of HGH.

The issue has brought the "A-Rod's still on steroids" flag-wavers out of the woodwork once again. It's persistent and annoying, and it's not going away anytime soon.

Given A-Rod's mental toughness pre-2009, it'd be easy to anticipate a below-average season filled with innuendo and "A-Roid" signs in opposing ballparks. Well, the innuendo and the signs are going to happen. But A-Rod has changed. He's won a World Series--in fact, he put the Yankees on his back and carried them to the World Series. And he's won over the New York fans, a feat that seemed impossible a year ago.

What do I expect from the new and mentally improved A-Rod? A 300-400-600 breakdown (BA, OBP, slugging), 45 home runs, 5-8 game-winning hits and a minimum of boos at Yankee Stadium.

LEFT FIELD: Aaaand it gets interesting.

(TWEAKS: Instead of dropping another $100-125 million on star outfielder Matt Holliday, Cashman left the marquee free agent outfielder alone. The result is a starting spot for Brett Gardner, who runs fast, fields well, and hits... we'll say "below average." But Gardner's not expected to hit .300 and blast a bunch of home runs. What he can do is be a gnat in the No. 9 hole, a pesky hitter who finds ways to get on base, turns over the lineup and murders opponents on the basepaths. And I'm not even talking about stolen bases. Can you imagine the first-to-third potential when Gardner forces the first baseman to hold him on, creating a bigger hole for Jeter's patented inside-out swing? That's my dream for Gardner. He's the key to the offensive merry-go-round.)

Suggesting Gardner is the No. 9 hitter without proposing a starting lineup seems a little disingenuous. So...

1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Nick Johnson, DH
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Jorge Posada, C
7. Curtis Granderson, CF
8. Nick Swisher, RF
9. Brett Gardner, LF

Why? Because (as we'll see later) Johnson's high OBP makes him ideal for the No. 2 hole. And because at the end of the day, Granderson has a significantly higher offensive ceiling than Swisher or Gardner, which overrides the added value of putting him in the No. 9 hole.

CENTER FIELD: The biggest change on offense comes in the form of a 29-year old lefty who hit .249 last season and has averaged 142 strikeouts in his four full seasons. Immediately after Cashman's big trade, I voiced my full-throated objections. Let's take a slightly mellower look at Curtis Granderson.

--He's got a very big upside. Take away Granderson's last season (his fourth straight in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park) and his numbers are solid across the board. Particularly impressive is his equal opportunity approach to extra base hits. In 2007 and 2008, Granderson had 26+ doubles, 13+ triples, and 22+ home runs. The new Yankee Stadium has its fair share of nooks and crannies. Expect Granderson to find them--often.

--There's a conveniently short porch in the Bronx. Let's call this the Johnny Damon Corollary. Damon immediately realized the value of the lazy-fly-ball-that-clears-the-right-field-fence, altered his swing accordingly, and tied a career high with 24 home runs. Granderson should be able to employ the same golf swing and could be good for 30 home runs.

--He's going to steal bases. Granderson brings more speed to complement Gardner in the back of the lineup and could become a terror on the basepaths.

Is that enough to overcome his offensive foibles? We'll see. But Granderson will definitely be a positive factor even if he strikes out another 150 times and hits .240.

(In other words, I'm still not sold on this guy)

RIGHT FIELD: Change of pace--here's Nick Swisher in 10 words: Limited range. Gets on base. Jokester. Light-hitting. Playoff bust.

DESIGNATED HITTER: If there's one thing Nick Johnson does, it's get on base. Sporting a .402 career OBP, Johnson will take Johnny Damon's place in the No. 2 hole. He'll also back up Teixeira at first and can play in the outfield if needed. Not bad for a guy the Yanks are paying just $5.5 million this year.

(TWEAKS: Sandwiched between Jeter, Teix, and A-Rod, the No. 2 spot in the Yankee lineup is crucial for the Bombers' offensive success. And Johnson has the potential to be just as effective as Damon--but in a very different way. Damon hovered around a .300 batting average and blasted 24 home runs. Johnson's strengths are more subtle: doubles and walks, two ideal qualities for a table-setter whose primary job is to get on base ahead of the sluggers and move Jeter around the bases. IF Johnson can stay healthy--and that's a big if--he should fill Damon's role more than adequately.)

BENCH: As usual, the Yankees don't trot out a top-tier bench. Other than glue-guy infielder Ramiro Pena and rapidly aging outfielder Randy Winn, not much to see here (other than the aforementioned Cervelli).

STARTING PITCHING: There are a few time-tested truths about the Yanks' rotation, and a few glaring question marks.

Time-Tested Truths
--C.C. Sabathia will be a horse. There's no reason to think Sabathia has anything less than a 2009-caliber season (19-8, 3.37 ERA) in him. The Bombers haven't had this kind of lights-out ace since Roger Clemens in 2001. I'd argue that at 30, with no season of fewer than 11 wins and 188 innings pitched, Sabathia is more of a sure thing than Clemens was (furiously knocking on all the wood I can find).

--Andy Pettitte is good for 13-16 wins and 9-11 losses. Despite his advancing age and annual consideration of retirement in the offseason, the veteran lefty has an arsenal that ages well. As long as he keeps his pitches down in the strike zone, Pettitte will have a solid season.

--A.J. Burnett will continue to confound Yankee fans. The mercurial righty is good for a few gems (see: August 7 vs. Boston) a few disasters (see: August 22 vs. Boston) and a host of maddening games. What's a "maddening game"? 6-7 innings, 3-5 earned runs, 2-4 costly two-out walks and a handful of tear-your-hair-out pitches. At the end of the day, though, Burnett's a solid No. 2 starter. Learn to enjoy the ride.

Question Marks
--Which Javier Vazquez will show up? The guy who struggled to a 4.91 ERA in his one season in pinstripes and gave up a backbreaking grand slam to Johnny Damon in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS? Or the guy who went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and became a stopper for the Braves last season?

(TWEAKS: Cashman took a relative flier on Vazquez, who will have less pressure as a No. 4 starter and is coming off arguably his best season. But some people are cut out to play in the Big Apple, and some people aren't. Reggie Jackson was. Dave Winfield wasn't. David Cone was. Kevin Brown wasn't. You get the idea. Vazquez has already shown he has trouble under pressure--the Damon grand slam came on the first pitch of the most important appearance of Vazquez's career. Maybe we'll see a new, tougher Vazquez. But I'm not holding my breath.)

--Can Phil Hughes be a solid No. 5 starter? Writing on the decision to put Hughes in the rotation, I said, "I think Hughes has more sterling performances in him than embarrassing ones." That assertion depends on Hughes getting into a rhythm in rotation, which in turn depends on him staying healthy. If he can avoid a repeat of 2007, when a hamstring injury kept him out for three months, Hughes will have his chance to round into form.

RELIEF PITCHING: What is this, the fifth straight year that "Mariano Rivera will start to fall off"? When the best closer in the history of the game AND the best closer right now actually starts to struggle, let me know. Until then, he's the one thing Yankee fans shouldn't worry about. I don't care if he's 40, 44 or 400. The cutter still looks 25.

As for middle relief, the body part to keep an eye on in Damaso Marte's throwing shoulder. Marte battled the shoulder all of last year--once it healed, he turned in a sizzling postseason. This week, he said the shoulder was "cranky," a baseball term most commonly applied to Lou Piniella (BOOM!). The Yanks have Boone Logan, a lefty specialist and current Triple A resident, waiting in the wings. Hopefully they don't have to use him just yet.

COACH: Between allowing players like Swisher and Burnett to loosen up the clubhouse atmosphere and the whole "winning the World Series" thing, Joe Girardi's looking pretty good right now. Love it when a fellow Northwestern grad stands out in pro sports (and considering our most decorated alumnus in sports is Otto Graham, it's a pretty spartan landscape).

PREDICTION: We're pushing 3000 words here, so let's make it quick. The Yanks are just as strong as last year if Johnson and Granderson step up. Teixeira's not gonna toe the Mendoza line for two months. And the Red Sox bolstered their rotation with John Lackey, but they're hurting in the middle of the order.

Ballgame over. World Series over. Yankees win.

Why not?