Karma and the Jets

As sports fans go, I am fairly pragmatic. I focus on numbers and trends and tend to ignore that nebulous factor beloved by so many fans: karma. I believe the Red Sox came back against the Yankees in the ALCS-That-Must-Not-Be-Named because they had better pitching and more hits in the clutch, not because the ghost of Babe Ruth finally decided to give Boston a break. Karma is how fans explain what they can't understand, and that almost always comes from a lack of sports knowledge.

But there's something about this Jets team.

I mean, how can you explain Gang Green's last four games? Playoff-clinching wins against the Colts (14-0) and Bengals (10-5) because both teams decided not to play at their best (Indianapolis pulled their starters, while Cincinnati obviously had no interest in winning the Week 17 game). Frigid conditions in Cincinnati for the wild-card game, which massively favored teams that run the ball and play defense. Shonn Greene, who two years ago was a truck driver in Iowa, rushing for back-to-back 100-yard games in the playoffs and turning into the second coming of Freeman McNeil overnight. Mark Sanchez going from a wheel-coming-off-the-wagon rookie QB to the 2009 version of Ben Roethlisberger. A pair of kickers (Cincinnati Shayne Graham and San Diego's Nate Kaeding) who combined to miss four field goals from inside 40 yards, including a crucial late-game miss in the exact same situation (down 10, less than five minutes left, chip shot FG that would've made it a one-score game). San Diego repeatedly shooting itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties, including four personal foul penalties. Two Darrelle Revis interceptions in the playoffs that were game-changing, highlight-reel plays.

OK, so the last one was less karma, more Revis being the best defensive player in the league (with the potential to become the most dominating shutdown cornerback since early-90s Deion Sanders). But the Jets have had an astonishing number of chips fall their way. And now, they are the overwhelming underdog of the NFL's final four. How big is the disparity between Gang Green and the Colts, Saints, and Vikings? These are the records of each team after Week 11.

Colts (10-0)
Saints (10-0)
Vikings (9-1)
Jets (4-6)

Enough said.

At this point, though, the records don't matter. Fresh off their remarkable 17-14 upset of the Chargers, the Jets are one win away from their first Super Bowl since Joe Namath's guarantee and the most shocking upset in NFL history, a 16-7 win over the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III.

The Colts, now in Indianapolis, await the Jets on Sunday. Though Rex Ryan's squad beat Indy 29-15 in Week 16, a Jets win would nonetheless be an upset to rival that epic Super Bowl matchup 41 years ago.

But that's for later this week. Right now, let's break down the biggest Jets win in 11 years.

KEY STAT: The Jets outrushed the Chargers 169-61, shutting down LaDanian Tomlinson while unleashing their new two-headed monster on the San Diego defense. Though starter Thomas Jones was ineffective, Greene ate up yards and clock in the second half, including a monster 53-yard touchdown that turned out to be the winning score. On the play, Greene made in into the secondary untouched, bulldozed over safety Eric Weddle and headed for the end zone. Now that's power running.

(Honorable mention: Kaeding's three missed field goals. When the final score is 17-14 and you miss two chippies from inside 40 yards, you're probably starting next season in a different uniform.)

KEY STAT NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT: The Jets won the time of possession battle, 31:31 to 28:29. On the surface, the difference looks fairly pedestrian. Look closer, and you find the Chargers controlled the ball for 11:35 in the first quarter alone (yes, I'm using italics a lot. This is some shocking stuff here). So from the second quarter on, the TOP battle looks like this: Jets 28:06, Chargers 16:54. The Jets rediscoverd Greene in the second quarter and picked up all 14 of their first downs in the final three periods. It's no surprise that by the fourth quarter, the San Diego defense was physically spent and primed for a major letdown. Enter Greene's touchdown run.

ANATOMY OF AN INTERCEPTION: Revis made not one, but two heads-up plays on his third quarter pick of Philip Rivers. Chargers' receiver Vincent Jackson appeared to have position on a jump ball thrown by Rivers on third-and-8 at the New York 36. But as Jackson grabbed the ball, Revis pulled down on his right shoulder, jarring the pigskin of his hands.

Both players fell to the ground as the ball bounced off Jackson's heel. As he rolled onto his back, Revis saw the ball falling to the ground next to him, realized what was going on, and pulled it in with his right hand as he lay on the ground. The above sentence took place in about 1.5 seconds. Revis displayed the presence of mind of a veteran corner and had the physical skills to haul in the interception while lying flat on his back. To top it off, he got up and ran for six yards before getting tackled.

If Revis isn't guarding Jackson, he makes the catch and it's a first down for San Diego inside the 20. Instead, Revis got the INT and the Jets got the ball -- and the momentum -- back. Someone please explain to me how Charles Woodson beat out Revis for Defensive Player of the Year.

UNSUNG GAME-SAVING PLAY: Even people who saw it may not realize how difficult Kerry Rhodes' recovery of the Chargers' onside kick was. Though he had a horrible game, Kaeding booted a perfect onside kick, and three Chargers jumped for the ball as Rhodes got his hands on it. But the much-maligned Jets' safety couldn't control the kick and fell to the side as the ball bounced off his hands. Even though he was completely up in the air, Rhodes stayed with the football, gathering it in as he came crashing down. Lynn Swann could hardly have done it better.

RANDOM HISTORICAL STAT PROVIDED BY MY MOM: The only time the Jets won the Super Bowl, a New York team also won the World Series (the 1969 Amazin' Mets). And as we all know, the World Series trophy currently resides in the Bronx.

OVER-THE-TOP STATEMENT ALERT: If Greene doesn't get at least 80 percent of the carries against the Colts, I'm poking a hole in Rex Ryan.

THE REX RYAN MEMORIAL 'GUT-CHECK' PLAY: A minute left in the game. Jets up three with the ball at the Chargers' 29. Fourth and one. First down wins the game. Punt pins San Diego deep with no timeouts.

Did the Jets go for it? Of course they did. Greene got behind Pro Bowl center Nick Mangold and fullback Tony Richardson and dove through the line for two yards. Game over.

BEST POSTGAME DRUNKEN CELEBRATORY LINE: (From a guy at the New York sports bar in D.C. where I watched the game) "You think the Colts are scared? YOU THINK THE COLTS ARE SCARED?!?!?!"

Um, probably not. But they've probably learned a lesson from Gang Green's magical month: Overlook the Jets at your peril.